Nanaimo Ladysmith Public Schools student enrolment continues to trend up, but elementary school numbers are short of forecasts.
The school district projected 15,046 students for 2022-23 and according to a staff report, 15,391 full-time equivalent students were recorded in the preliminary head count, a year-over-year increase of 268 students. However, 8,939 students were anticipated for kindergarten-Grade 7 and 8,875 were recorded, said Mark Walsh, district secretary-treasurer, a 64-student shortfall.
He told trustees at an Oct. 12 meeting that the district is usually “conservative” with enrolment projections, but deviated slightly and “overshot.” The reason being the district would have teachers in classes right at the get-go, he said.
“In spring time we say, ‘Here’s how many kids we anticipate,’ staffing can flow, so there’s not as much churn in September if we can avoid it…” Walsh said “The good news again though is that it’s spread out, so it’s not just K-1-2. If it was [only kindergarten and Grade 1-2 students], then we’d start to see a trend and you could play that out for seven years.”
The district is examining the discrepancies, according to Walsh.
“We’re about a month-and-a-half away from our updated [enrolment] projections and we’ve engaged our geospatial consultants as well to come back and have a look at our long-range facilities plan numbers in the context of the last three years, as well as the context of where growth might be going given the economic trends,” he said.
High school enrolment numbers are more in line with estimates.
Grade 8 saw 15 more students than anticipated, noted the staff report, while Grade 9 saw 17 more students, Grade 11 nine more students and Grade 12 saw 21 more students. Grade 10 was the only grade short of estimated enrolment with six fewer students than anticipated.
Overall, there were 1,034 kindergartners, 1,061 Grade 1 students, 1,118 Grade 2s, 1,092 Grade 3s, 1,134 Grade 4s, 1,127 Grade 5s, 1,160 Grade 6s and 1,149 Grade 7s in the district. For high schools, there were 1,160 Grade 8s, 1,130 Grade 9s, 1,156 Grade 10s, 1,012 Grade 11s and 1,021 Grade 12s.
The numbers were submitted to the B.C. Ministry of Education in late September and are used to determine funding.
The district said it was unable to provide a school-by-school breakdown of enrolment.
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