The numbers of people experiencing homelessness are difficult to determine: many are hidden homeless who couch surf, live in tents and abandoned buildings, sleep in vehicles of all types, and move about from one outside area to another. As a result, homelessness counts and projections provide significant ranges of potential numbers. For instance, the Homeless Hub based at York University suggests the number of people experiencing homelessness in Canada currently ranges between 150,000 and 300,000. A few years ago, Stats Canada identified Canada’s homeless population at over 235,000. Arecent CTV analysis predicts that by 2030, the population of Canadians experiencing homelessness could grow to 570,000. In addition, that same study projected those who are couch-surfing and not presenting at shelters could reach 300,000 by 2030. That’s nearly 900,000 people without permanent housing by 2030. Those numbers confirm our country faces an existential crisis in homelessness.
There are few accurate numbers because much of our national data gathering is address-based. To try and overcome that issue, every two years Canada undertakes a point-in-time count of people who are unhoused. Experience suggests those counts are significantly undercounting. In the case of Nanaimo (population 104,000), the 2023 count identified 515 people experiencing homelessness. Yet, those working with Nanaimo’s homeless people believe that the actual number is much higher; likely closer to 1,000. That represents one per cent of Nanaimo’s population compared to Medicine Hat, Alta., which had 27 homeless people on the street in 2023 or 0.04 per cent of their city’s population (66,000).
Why is Medicine Hat’s homeless number so much lower? Simply, they started addressing homelessness in 2008 with a ‘housing first’ approach. To be fair, Medicine Hat has not grown as fast as Nanaimo and is not as big as Nanaimo, and Medicine Hat’s housing costs are substantially lower. Nevertheless, Nanaimo’s homeless population is 37 times higher.
When Medicine Hat is cited as an example of a Canadian city that got it right in addressing the issue, some in Nanaimo point to the difference in growth rates. Certainly the high growth rates in Nanaimo have helped fuel very high housing costs which in turn have driven up rental costs, together forcing many of our fellow citizens out on the street.
Even so, Medicine Hat’s very low homelessness numbers point to an embedded local government strategy that has endured for 16 years across varied local and provincial government political spectrums. Medicine Hat’s strategy, ‘housing first plus,’ has fostered a community-wide response with supportive housing, social housing with below-market rents, and associated wrap-around supports for those who are dealing with stress, mental health and substance abuse issues. Medicine Hat has had consistently low homelessness numbers, well before Nanaimo’s and Medicine Hat’s housing costs and populations diverged.
Nanaimo needs to explore what Medicine Hat has done and what many other countries have done to build successful homelessness strategies. Unless we do, the aforementioned projections will be our new reality.
David Witty is senior fellow urban design in the master of community planning department at Vancouver Island University.
