The average price of a home sold in B.C. in 2021 is forecast to rise 14.3 per cent to $893,800, according to the BCREA’s second quarter housing forecast. (Source: BCREA Economics)

The average price of a home sold in B.C. in 2021 is forecast to rise 14.3 per cent to $893,800, according to the BCREA’s second quarter housing forecast. (Source: BCREA Economics)

Experts now predict 33.6% rise in B.C. home sales for 2021

BCREA economists also predict home prices to increase by 14.3%

By Paul Henderson

Black Press

There is little question that 2021 will be the biggest year ever in British Columbia real estate sales with average home sale prices similarly hitting new heights.

But while the B.C. Real Estate Association (BCREA) forecasts fading momentum by the end of the year to reduce the number of sales in 2022, prices may continue to rise.

After the immediate lull in sales of just about everything in spring of 2020, several months into the COVID-19 pandemic, home sales in all markets in the province took off.

“The record-setting pace of home sales that began in late fall of 2020 has continued into 2021 with markets across the province eclipsing previous monthly sales records by wide margins,” according to the BCREA’s second quarter housing forecast.

The 94,013 sales in B.C. in 2020 represented a 21.5 per cent increase over 2019, and the average sale price of $781,765 was a 11.6 per cent jump over the $699,000 in 2019.

And 2021 is proving to be even hotter with the BCREA predicting 125,600 home sales, a 33.6 per cent increase over 2020. The average home price is forecast to hit $893,800 in 2021, a 14.3 per cent increase over 2020.

Those sales and price forecasts nearly double predictions made in the first quarter.

RELATED: 16% boom predicted for B.C. real estate sales in 2021: experts

Low mortgage rates coupled with buyers flocking to less populated markets led to the big increases seen over the last eight months. That could slow with a creep up in interest rates and a catch-up in supply, but not any time soon.

“The trajectory of home sales in the second half of 2021 and for 2022 will be highly dependent on the evolution of Canadian mortgage rates,” the BCREA forecasts. “Home sales will likely slow toward the second half of this year. However, even factoring in a second-half slowdown, provincial unit sales are still projected to reach a record.”

As for 2022, the BCREA forecasts a 20.3 per cent drop in sales to 100,150, but a 3.1 per cent increase in the average price of all home types to $921,800.

Broken down by region, BCREA predicts the small Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board to see the biggest increase in sales in 2021 up 51.6 per cent year over year, followed by Greater Vancouver at 40.8 per cent, Powell River Sunshine Coast at 38.2 per cent, and the Interior and BC Northern at 31.9 and 31.1 per cent respectively.

The average price of a home in Greater Vancouver in 2021 is forecast to be $1.174 million, with the Fraser Valley at $969,400, and Victoria at $866,200.

“The supply shock experienced by BC markets during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic and a sustained listings drought continues to drive price increases in 2021. This is particularly true in smaller markets, many of which have seen inventories of homes for sale fall to all-time lows.”

RELATED: Chilliwack housing market projected to be among B.C.’s hottest in 2021


Do you have something to add to this story, or something else we should report on? Email:
editor@theprogress.com

@PeeJayAitch
Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Just Posted

Construction work continues on the City of Nanaimo’s new Fire Station No. 1 on Fitzwilliam Street. (News Bulletin file)
Next phase of borrowing approved as Nanaimo fire hall construction ongoing

City of Nanaimo CAO says construction on Fitzwilliam Street hall on schedule and budget

Nanaimo Fire Rescue firefighters at the scene of a single-vehicle crash on Tenth Street near Southside Drive on Sunday, June 13. (Greg Sakaki/News Bulletin)
Driver OK after crashing vehicle off the side of Nanaimo’s Tenth Street

Crews say wet roads a factor a crash Sunday, June 13

Emergency crews on scene of a two-car crash at the intersection of Cranberry Avenue and the Trans-Canada Highway on Sunday, June 13. (Greg Sakaki/News Bulletin)
Crash blocks Cranberry intersection in Nanaimo, no one injured

Incident blocks both southbound lanes of Trans-Canada Highway

(PQB News file photo)
Fireworks report highlights enforcement challenges for Regional District of Nanaimo

Director: ‘I just think it’s wasting everybody’s time’

Nanaimo is the first city in Canada to subscribe to the Chonolog environment photo-monitoring system, which allow residents to contribute photos of habitat restoration projects that are converted to time lapse sequences showing environmental changes. (Chris Bush/ News Bulletin)
Nanaimo residents invited to be citizen scientists by sharing habitat restoration photos

Nanaimo first city in Canada to sign up for Chronolog environment photo monitoring service

Emergency crews on scene of a two-car crash at the intersection of Cranberry Avenue and the Trans-Canada Highway on Sunday, June 13. (Greg Sakaki/News Bulletin)
Crash blocks Cranberry intersection in Nanaimo, no one injured

Incident blocks both southbound lanes of Trans-Canada Highway

Cruise ship passengers arrive at Juneau, Alaska in 2018. Cruise lines have begun booking passengers for trips from Seattle to Alaska as early as this July, bypassing B.C. ports that are not allowed to have visitors until March 2022 under a Canadian COVID-19 restrictions. (Michael Penn/Juneau Empire)
B.C. doesn’t depend on U.S. law to attract cruise ships, Horgan says

Provinces to get update next week on Canada’s border closure

This undated photo provided by Girl Scouts of New Mexico Trails shows a scout donating cookies to firefighters in Rio Rancho, New Mexico, as part of the Hometown Heroes program. As the coronavirus pandemic wore into the spring selling season, many Girl Scout troops nixed their traditional cookie booths for safety reasons. That resulted in millions of boxes of unsold cookies. (Girl Scouts of New Mexico Trails via AP)
Thinner Mints: Girl Scouts have millions of unsold cookies

Since majority of cookies are sold in-person, pandemic made the shortfall expected

In this artist’s sketch, Nathaniel Veltman makes a video court appearance in London, Ont., on June 10, 2021 as Justice of the Peace Robert Seneshen (top left) and lawyer Alayna Jay look on. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Alexandra Newbould
Terror charges laid against London attack suspect

Crown says Nathaniel Veltman’s four counts of first-degree murder constitute an act of terrorism

Premier John Horgan speaks as provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry, right, and health minister Adrian Dix look on during a press conference to update on the province's fall pandemic preparedness plan during a press conference from the press theatre at Legislature in Victoria, Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chad Hipolito
B.C. officials to provide details on Step 2 of COVID reopening plan Monday

Step 2 could allow for larger gatherings and a resumption of recreational travel

Members of the Department of Fisheries and Oceans’ Marine Mammal Response Program rescued an adult humpback what that was entangled in commercial fishing gear in the waters off of Entrance Island on Thursday, June 10. (Photo courtesy Marine Mammal Response Program)
Rescuers free humpback ‘anchored’ down by prawn traps near Nanaimo

Department of Fisheries and Oceans responders spend hours untangling whale

A section of proposed Harbourfront Walkway between White Eagle Terrace and Battersea Road. (City of Nanaimo image)
Nanaimo’s proposed walkway extension project estimated at $25-30 million

City asking for feedback on concepts to connect Departure Bay Beach and ferry terminal

City of Nanaimo council has approved amendments for an animal control bylaw requested by the Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations. The bylaw includes language related to quail. (Wikipedia Commons photo)
Province asks for tweaks to Nanaimo’s animal responsibility bylaw

Ministry concerned bylaw wording could create municipal and provincial jurisdictional overlaps

Most Read