Green Party Leader Elizabeth May arrives with her husband John Kidder before announcing the official launch of the Green Party of Canada election campaign as she’s joined by green candidates during a news conference at the Delta Hotels Victoria Ocean Pointe Resort in Victoria on Wednesday, September 11, 2019. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chad Hipolito

Spotlight on B.C.: How will the province affect the federal election?

Black Press Media presents a four-part series looking into how B.C. will affect the national outcome

By Bruce Cameron

The 2019 federal election is officially underway, with major party leaders crisscrossing the country to campaign in the lead up to Voting Day on Oct. 21.

Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer began this week in the vote-rich regions of Quebec and Ontario. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh started off in London, Ont. And Green Party Leader Elizabeth May chose her riding of Saanich–Gulf Islands in B.C., where she expects to make historic gains.

It’s hard to imagine another Liberal Party of Canada leader from the past 30 years who would kick off an election campaign in B.C. But that’s what Justin Trudeau did, in the riding of Vancouver Kingsway, held by three-term NDP stalwart Don Davies.

Why make that move? Recent polling trends suggest NDP voters are moving away from the party. If Trudeau can capture once-safe NDP seats such as Vancouver Kingsway, campaign strategists believe he can hold onto his majority.

How crucial a role will British Columbia play in the ultimate outcome? It’s been said before that B.C. will matter only until the news media make their calls on the winning party before results in the west are even fully counted.

If the polls are to be trusted, however, and that is asking a lot given the recent track record of some pollsters, B.C. may hold the key to the final result.

Some of the questions to be explored in this four-part series on B.C.’s role in the federal election include:

  • Can the Liberals hold on to seats in the Lower Mainland despite a drop in the polls from 2015?
  • Can the Conservatives re-capture interior and suburban B.C. voters who used to deliver safe Conservative seats?
  • Can the NDP avoid a collapse of its voter base in B.C. to Greens and Liberals?
  • Will Vancouver Island deliver a Green Party breakthrough?

READ MORE: Trudeau election plane damaged in Victoria after media bus drives under wing

In most predictive models, which combine multiple poll results with historic voting patterns, B.C.’s 42 seats could prove the decisive factor in determining which party forms government.

Consider the outcome in 2015, when all four major parties captured seats.

Trudeau’s ability to connect with people in the densely populated ridings in the Lower Mainland gave the Liberals 17 seats.

The NDP held on to 14 ridings, despite the drop in total votes across the country, as many supporters defected to the Liberals in a push to defeat then-Conservative leader Stephen Harper.

Many previous Conservative strongholds in B.C.’s central and interior regions fell to the New Democrats, leaving Harper’s party with just 10 seats in the province.

But that was four years ago, and the Tories are gunning for a rebound.

Hope are high for other parties too.

RELATED: What role will feminism play in the federal election?

The Liberals must keep their progressive foothold in diverse urban and suburban ridings around Greater Vancouver and fend off independent Vancouver Granville candidate Jody Wilson-Raybould, a former Liberal cabinet minister ousted from caucus in the SNC-Lavalin affair.

The Greens, who have the most to gain from the recent drop in NDP support, raise the prospect of a possible Green sweep in southern Vancouver Island.

A handful of ridings will give clues as to how the campaign is unfolding in B.C.:

  • Interior: Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo and Kootenay–Columbia
  • Lower Mainland: Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge and Cloverdale–Langley City
  • Vancouver: North Vancouver, Vancouver Granville, Vancouver Kingsway and Burnaby North–Seymour
  • Vancouver Island: Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke and Courtenay–Alberni

ALSO READ: Should voting be mandatory in federal elections?

Get ready for the spotlight, B.C., as national attention shifts to the West on the campaign trail.

Federal Seats by Party in BC 2008-2015
Infogram

Bruce Cameron, Black Press Media’s polling analyst, is the founder of Return On Insight

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

Crimson Coast Dance Society salutes African dance during Black History Month

Dancers from Mozambique, Rwanda and Cameroon to give demonstrations and lessons

Nanaimo Clippers, clad in Snuneymuxw jerseys, win in OT

BCHL team wins both its weekend games to stay in contention for first place on the Island

Nanaimo-bound ferry breaks down, but another available for service

Two sailings cancelled Sunday on Tsawwassen-Duke Point route

Air Canada will offer direct Nanaimo-to-Toronto flights again this year

Seasonal service will run from June until October

Nanaimo a capital city in the beard business – Wildman Beard Co.

Wildman Beard Co. gained early success with Nanaimo mill workers

VIDEO: Minister reports ‘modest progress’ after blockade talks with First Nation

Wet’suwet’en hereditary chiefs say Coastal GasLink does not have authority to go through their lands

Henrique scores 2 as Ducks soar past Canucks 5-1

Vancouver tumbles out of top spot in Pacific Division

Trudeau cancels Caribbean trip amid pipeline protests across Canada

Protests against Coastal GasLink have disrupted rail service

B.C. VIEWS: Inaction on pipeline protests not a viable response

Columnist Frank Bucholtz on how the Coastal GasLink pipeline dispute got so bad

PHOTOS: Top 10 memories of the 2010 Olympics

Black Press Media’s Jenna Hauck, shares some of her most memorable images of 2010 Winter Games

#FoxForFiver: Support grows in B.C. to put Terry Fox on new $5 bill

Terry Fox’ Marathon of Hope raised money for cancer research

Woodlands proposed to house students during Cilaire seismic upgrades

Nanaimo Ladysmith Public Schools’ plan awaits ministry of education approval

Registration opens soon for BC 55+ Games in Richmond

2020 55+ Games have been officially scheduled for Sept. 15 to 19

Most Read