Green Party Leader Elizabeth May arrives with her husband John Kidder before announcing the official launch of the Green Party of Canada election campaign as she’s joined by green candidates during a news conference at the Delta Hotels Victoria Ocean Pointe Resort in Victoria on Wednesday, September 11, 2019. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chad Hipolito

Spotlight on B.C.: How will the province affect the federal election?

Black Press Media presents a four-part series looking into how B.C. will affect the national outcome

By Bruce Cameron

The 2019 federal election is officially underway, with major party leaders crisscrossing the country to campaign in the lead up to Voting Day on Oct. 21.

Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer began this week in the vote-rich regions of Quebec and Ontario. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh started off in London, Ont. And Green Party Leader Elizabeth May chose her riding of Saanich–Gulf Islands in B.C., where she expects to make historic gains.

It’s hard to imagine another Liberal Party of Canada leader from the past 30 years who would kick off an election campaign in B.C. But that’s what Justin Trudeau did, in the riding of Vancouver Kingsway, held by three-term NDP stalwart Don Davies.

Why make that move? Recent polling trends suggest NDP voters are moving away from the party. If Trudeau can capture once-safe NDP seats such as Vancouver Kingsway, campaign strategists believe he can hold onto his majority.

How crucial a role will British Columbia play in the ultimate outcome? It’s been said before that B.C. will matter only until the news media make their calls on the winning party before results in the west are even fully counted.

If the polls are to be trusted, however, and that is asking a lot given the recent track record of some pollsters, B.C. may hold the key to the final result.

Some of the questions to be explored in this four-part series on B.C.’s role in the federal election include:

  • Can the Liberals hold on to seats in the Lower Mainland despite a drop in the polls from 2015?
  • Can the Conservatives re-capture interior and suburban B.C. voters who used to deliver safe Conservative seats?
  • Can the NDP avoid a collapse of its voter base in B.C. to Greens and Liberals?
  • Will Vancouver Island deliver a Green Party breakthrough?

READ MORE: Trudeau election plane damaged in Victoria after media bus drives under wing

In most predictive models, which combine multiple poll results with historic voting patterns, B.C.’s 42 seats could prove the decisive factor in determining which party forms government.

Consider the outcome in 2015, when all four major parties captured seats.

Trudeau’s ability to connect with people in the densely populated ridings in the Lower Mainland gave the Liberals 17 seats.

The NDP held on to 14 ridings, despite the drop in total votes across the country, as many supporters defected to the Liberals in a push to defeat then-Conservative leader Stephen Harper.

Many previous Conservative strongholds in B.C.’s central and interior regions fell to the New Democrats, leaving Harper’s party with just 10 seats in the province.

But that was four years ago, and the Tories are gunning for a rebound.

Hope are high for other parties too.

RELATED: What role will feminism play in the federal election?

The Liberals must keep their progressive foothold in diverse urban and suburban ridings around Greater Vancouver and fend off independent Vancouver Granville candidate Jody Wilson-Raybould, a former Liberal cabinet minister ousted from caucus in the SNC-Lavalin affair.

The Greens, who have the most to gain from the recent drop in NDP support, raise the prospect of a possible Green sweep in southern Vancouver Island.

A handful of ridings will give clues as to how the campaign is unfolding in B.C.:

  • Interior: Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo and Kootenay–Columbia
  • Lower Mainland: Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge and Cloverdale–Langley City
  • Vancouver: North Vancouver, Vancouver Granville, Vancouver Kingsway and Burnaby North–Seymour
  • Vancouver Island: Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke and Courtenay–Alberni

ALSO READ: Should voting be mandatory in federal elections?

Get ready for the spotlight, B.C., as national attention shifts to the West on the campaign trail.

Federal Seats by Party in BC 2008-2015
Infogram

Bruce Cameron, Black Press Media’s polling analyst, is the founder of Return On Insight

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

A man was arrested at a Nanaimo convenience store last week for challenging customers to fights. (News Bulletin file photo)
‘Shadow boxing’ Nanaimo man arrested after challenging convenience store customers to fights

Man spends night in a cell at Nanaimo RCMP detachment, released without charges

B.C. Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau outlines her party’s climate action platform at Nanaimo’s Vancouver Island Conference Centre earlier this month. (Chris Bush/News Bulletin)
B.C. Greens say minority government can best address ‘overlapping crises’

Furstenau talks to the News Bulletin about coalitions, old-growth forests and ferries

Two men were stranded on Snake Island after their small boat was blown away by strong winds Wednesday. (News Bulletin file photo)
Boat blows away, stranding fishermen on Snake Island in the strait near Nanaimo

Marine search and rescue team picked up men on windy afternoon Wednesday

Surveillance image of a suspect in a break-and-enter in Nanoose Bay on Oct. 20. (Submitted photo)
Suspect in Nanoose Bay uses garage door opener to get into home, takes keys, steals truck

Oceanside RCMP ask for public’s help to try to identify suspect

Our Home on 8th, the Port Alberni Shelter that opened in March 2019, has 27 extra ‘extreme weather’ spaces for people who need a place to get out of the cold. (SUSAN QUINN/ Alberni Valley News)
BC VOTES 2020: Mid-Island candidate plans occupation of shelter to protest homelessness

Graham Hughes says homeless situation a ‘crisis’ in Port Alberni

Candidates in the Nanaimo riding include Kathleen Jones, B.C. Liberal Party, top left; Sheila Malcolmson, NDP; Lia Versaevel, Green Party. (Photos submitted/News Bulletin photo/Elections B.C. image)
B.C. VOTES 2020: Nanaimo candidates

Provincial election candidates discuss their priorities in their own words

Candidates in the Parksville-Qualicum riding include Rob Lyon, B.C. Green Party, top left; Don Purdey, Conservatives; John St. John, independent; Michelle Stilwell, B.C. Liberals; and Adam Walker, B.C. NDP. (Photos submitted/Elections B.C. image)
B.C. VOTES 2020: Parksville-Qualicum candidates

Provincial election candidates discuss their priorities in their own words

Candidates in the Nanaimo-North Cowichan riding include Chris Istace, B.C. Green Party, top left; Duck Paterson, B.C. Liberals; and Doug Routley, NDP. (Photos submitted/Elections B.C. image)
B.C. VOTES 2020: Nanaimo-North Cowichan candidates

Provincial election candidates discuss their priorities in their own words

Police in Nanaimo are looking for a woman who allegedly threw hot coffee on a McDonald’s employee. (News Bulletin photo)
UPDATE: Nanaimo RCMP still looking for woman who threw coffee at worker after already receiving refund

Police asking for information in investigation that could lead to assault charges

Environment Canada has issued a snowfall advisory for parts of Vancouver Island for Thursday and Friday.(File photo)
Snowfall expected in parts of Vancouver Island this week

Environment Canada has issued a snowfall advisory for north, east and inland Vancouver Island

Environment Minister George Heyman, Premier John Horgan and Energy Minister Michelle Mungall announce that B.C. Hydro is proceeding with construction of the Site C dam, Dec. 11, 2017. (Tom Fletcher/Black Press)
Site C actions, costs won’t be known until after B.C. election, Horgan says

Peace River diverted for construction of reinforced dam base

One of the squirrels who ended up having their tails amputated after getting them stuck together with tree sap. (Facebook/Wild ARC)
Squirrels recovering from tail amputation after sap situation near Victoria

BC SPCA Wild ARC says squirrels will be released back into wild, fifth sibling was euthanized

Most Read